D.C. public school enrollment barely budged in 2025-26, ending three consecutive years of growth. The plateau is raising questions about how the District will fund and staff its schools.
The enrollment audit for 2025-26, released in March, showed about 100 fewer students than the previous year, a decline of 0.1 percent, according to the D.C. Policy Center. Pre-kindergarten drove the dip. PK enrollment fell 3 percent, or 356 students. PK4 classes dropped 4.1 percent, and PK3 fell 1.5 percent.
High school enrollment, by contrast, rose 0.9 percent.
The pattern reflects demographics, not dissatisfaction, the D.C. Policy Center said in a separate March analysis. Larger birth cohorts from earlier years are moving into middle and high school. Smaller cohorts are entering the early grades. Births to D.C. residents have declined between 2 and 3 percent annually since 2016, with sharper drops in Ward 8.
"The system is retaining students. The challenge is fewer students at the front door," the Policy Center wrote.
That front door is narrowing further. Lottery data from My School DC, the city's common school lottery, shows PK3 applications for the 2026-27 school year fell 8 percent. The steepest drops came in Wards 2 and 3. If past enrollment patterns hold, PK3 enrollment could land around 4,898 students, an 8.6 percent drop from the current year, the Policy Center estimated.
Over five years, the center projects total enrollment will decline by about 743 students. That amounts to less than 1 percent. Pre-kindergarten alone accounts for a projected loss of roughly 1,707 students. Elementary enrollment is expected to stabilize briefly before declining more noticeably after the 2026-27 school year. Middle and high school numbers should keep climbing.
D.C. devoted an estimated 29 percent of its gross operating funds to public education in 2025-26. Funding flows through the Uniform Per Student Funding Formula (UPSFF), which totaled $2.6 billion in fiscal year 2026. Fewer students means less total funding flowing to schools, even as fixed costs remain.
The Policy Center warned that under-enrolled schools could face rising per-pupil fixed costs, classroom consolidation and staffing cuts. Washington Sun reporter Martin Austermuhle noted in a post on X that enrollment varies sharply across the city, with most under-enrolled DCPS schools concentrated in Wards 7 and 8.
Housing trends could accelerate the squeeze. Building permits were down 18.8 percent as of October 2025 compared to the prior year, and units under construction had fallen to roughly one-third of 2022 levels, the Policy Center reported. Federal workforce reductions and shifts in immigration policy could further reduce the number of families moving into the District.
In an August interview with WTOP focused on absenteeism and federal budget pressures, Interim DCPS Chancellor Kim Jackson said Mayor Muriel Bowser has increased spending on public education despite the impact of federal job cuts on the local economy. Jackson said DCPS is prioritizing classroom teachers and believes schools have the resources to support students.
DCPS serves more than 51,000 students in grades PK3 through 12. The next enrollment audit, covering the 2026-27 school year, will show whether the pre-kindergarten slide is accelerating as lottery data suggests.
